Calculations from academics at the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California, show that Russia raked in significantly more money from its crude oil sales in the weeks that followed the oil price cap implemented on December 5 last year.
The report said Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average. The calculations are contained in a paper titled, “Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network.
The paper studied two things: the effects of the EU embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil.
“We find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the impending EU embargo lowered demand.”
The report said it however do not find crude oil discounts as large as those reflected in Urals prices toward the end of 2022. “In particular, prices in market segments that are unaffected by lower European demand, e.g., exports from Russia’s Pacific Ocean ports, have not dropped in a meaningful way and shipments do not appear to comply with the price cap.
“Moreover, our surprising finding of a significant share of Russian crude oil being sold well-above the price cap level of $60 a barrel urgently calls for further investigation of these transactions and reinforces the need for stepped-up enforcement,” the authors said, and recommended that ‘the price caps on crude oil should be lowered as soon as possible.”
The analysis covered the four weeks following the implementation of the price cap.
By Bosco Agba