By Chibisi Ohakah

An expert report has predicted that Nigeria and China would become major contributors to the global refining industry capacity growth from planned and announced projects between 2019 and 2023.

In a report titled: ‘Global Planned Refining Industry Outlook to 2023 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Forecasts with Details of All Planned Refineries,’ a leading data and analytics company, GlobalData, said that the total global planned and announced refining capacity in 2023 will be 17,882 thousand barrels of oil per day (mbd).

According to the report, across the globe, 158 new refineries are planned to start operations between 2019 and 2023. A total new-build capital expenditure (capex) of around US$520bn is expected to be spent globally on planned and announced refineries during the outlook period.

China is the global leader in terms of planned refining capacity additions during the forecast period with 3,121 mbd from 10 planned and announced refineries. The country has planned and announced new-build capex of US$53.2 billion to be spent on the upcoming refineries over the next four years.

In the report, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, Soorya Tejomoortula, commented: “China’s ambitious refinery capacity expansion programme continues, fueled by the country’s industrial growth and spiralling demand from the transportation sector. The capacity expansion programme is powering China’s crude imports and transforming the country to become a strong contender for exports of petroleum products.”

The report identifies Nigeria as the second largest country in terms of refining capacity additions. The country is expected to add around 2,225 mbd of refining capacity by 2023. It has a planned and announced new-build capex of US$40.5 billion to be spent on upcoming refineries during the outlook period. With 1,190 mbd of refining capacity additions from planned refineries, Iraq will be the third largest country. The country plans to spend around US$41bn on the upcoming refineries between 2019 and 2023.

Among the upcoming refineries, in terms of refining capacity, Dayushan Island refinery in China, Lagos I refinery in Nigeria and Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait will lead with 800 mbd, 650 mbd and 615 mbd, respectively. In terms of planned and announced capex, Dubose Flats refinery in Canada and Tabi refinery in Angola will lead with US$14 billion each. Ratnagiri refinery in India follows with US$13.5bn during the outlook period.

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