A frontline, global energy trader, Pierre Andurand, has said that Russia is losing the gas war as Europe seems to have moved past the worst of the power crisis.
Andurand told the Financial Times [FT] that that Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to achieve his objectives – whereas Europe has indeed found alternate natural gas supplies, with European benchmark natural gas prices now high, but well below the 300 euro per MW hour price that it achieved in August.
“I think Putin lost the energy war,” Andurand told the FT, adding that there was “no more fear of an energy crisis.”
“Now that Europe is getting used to living without Russian gas, why would they ever go back?” He described Putin’s decision to cut off gas supply to Europe as costly mistake. The singular move made Russia’s former customers to look elsewhere, he stressed.
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According to FT, Andurand Capital’s Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund gained 650% from the start of 2020 to the end of 2022. For 2023, it is down 3% so far, with Andruand calling the end to the power crisis.
Now, Andurand sees the possibility for big moves in crude oil. The prices for crude oil, Andurand explains, have fallen too far in recent months, and could rally when China’s economy rebounds as it backs away from its zero-covid policies. Crude prices could even hit $140 per barrel later this year, Andurand said.
“The reopening of China is going to lead to a lot more oil demand growth than expected,” Andurand said, adding that it could take a couple of months for the market “to recognize the scale of the demand increase we’re seeing.”
By Bosco Agba